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All posts by Ed Downs

New Risk Controls for Volatile Markets

Ed demonstrates the enhancement and new V2 OmniFunds in this 9-Minute video.

OmniFunds can determine bullish and bearish Market States, which enables them to stop trading in bear markets.   But from 12/20/24 to 1/20/25 we saw an unusual market that wasn't really a bear market - it was indecisive, moving strongly up for a day or two, followed by strong downward movement and repeating the pattern - basically "whipsaws" that led to a modest draw down.  

We realized this kind of indecisive, volatile market happens from time to time, and agreed it would be really great if our OmniFunds could detect that situation, in order to reduce trading in those cases. 

Our esteemed Algo Designer, Stephen G. Byrne took on this challenge and began testing ways to detect such a market. The result of his work is the new "Version 2" OmniFunds, which were just added to the new OmniFunds Beta Page*.  They do a great job of avoiding these volatile, "whipsaw" markets.  HOWEVER, the additional benefit of this new Risk Control was both surprising and exciting!

In each case, RETURNS improved by a substantial margin, with draw downs maintained within a few points of the originals.   These new V2 OmniFunds are showing one-year simulated returns from 200% to 250%, with max draw downs in the 10-13% range. That is simply phenomenal!

While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, we are especially encouraged by the 20-year simulation, showing these new OmniFunds beating their predecessors' performance by as much as 25% per year.  

One way to approach a new OmniFund is to reduce allocation as explained in Higher Returns with EVEN LESS Risk.  If these stats are replicated in live trading, investing just 25% would mean a 50% annual gain, and draw downs would be around 2-3%.  I'm fairly sure that most investors would be quite happy with that.   But account allocation is a decision each OmniFunds investor must make on his or her own.  It can be changed at any time on the MyOmniFunds dashboard.

Sincerely,
Ed Downs


*About the Beta OmniFunds Page

You can reach the Beta OmniFunds page by scrolling to the bottom of the OmniFund List on the Explore page and clicking the Beta OmniFunds link.  Then, select one of the Beta OmniFunds to see its historical equity curves and parameters.   We expect to keep these OmniFunds in Beta for 90 days to let the build some trading history, and then move them to the Explore page.

Higher Returns with EVEN LESS risk.

Video: https://youtu.be/EbA8eGKsT5M

Greetings!  Ed Downs here.  It's January 9th, and for the past few weeks we've seen a highly volatile market.   Two things are happening:  (1) nearly every global stock market is trading at all-time highs, and (2) there is a lot of uncertainty ahead of the new administration taking office in 12 days.   I personally think the economic changes that are coming will be highly positive for the markets, and especially where Energy is concerned.  But right now, there is uncertainty.

We have added several powerful risk controls to OmniFunds 2, including the use of Algorithms for Switching, Earnings Report Avoidance, and advanced Market States for determining when to go to cash.  But with the current volatility, some OmniFunds users have asked, "Is there a way to reduce risk even further in times like this?"  

YES, there is!  Remember, with OmniFunds, YOU ARE IN CONTROL.  In this 18-minute video, I cover the 3 ways investors can reduce exposure in OmniFunds using features we have added over the past year.  

Watch "Higher Returns with EVEN LESS Risk" now:
https://youtu.be/EbA8eGKsT5M

Major OmniFunds Update

We just released a significantly improved version of OmniFunds 2.
Here is a summary of the changes:

  1. Market on Close Execution - Improves Profitability by as much as 100% by increasing gains and reducing draw downs!
  2. Immediate Order Execution on Changes - Any change you make to an OmniFund (switching funds, allocation, etc.) can be made immediate.
  3. Avoiding the Pattern Day Trading Rule - When changes are made, OmniFunds ensures that an Entry and Exit will not be made on the same day for any symbol.
  4. Trade up to 200% on Margin - We now support trading full margin in OmniFunds 2
  5. Symbol Issues Addressed - There was a problem with $VIX that was addressed (for Lab users)

Click here for a document that explains the changes.

Investing in Growth

In Ed's interview with OmniFunds creator Steve Byrne, Steve explains the concepts he applied to create his winning OmniFunds, including the use of Growth Metrics and Growth Since Earnings calculations.  He also explains why his OmniFunds trade fewer stocks to achieve maximum gains with low draw owns over time.

Click here to watch the video.


What’s New in OmniFunds 2

OmniFunds a was created in 2017 primarily as an ETF Switching Platform, which slowly evolved into a Stock-Switching platform over the next 6 years.  

The primary features added were:

  1. The ability to use multiple Portfolios in an OmniFund
  2. Risk Controls for exposure and Earnings Dates.
  3. The ability to import Indicators from OmniTrader, using any Plug-In indicator available from Nirvana Systems.
  4. Improved Statistical views (per timeframe)

Click here for a document that lists all changes.



OmniFunds 2 Video

OmniFunds 2 launches today!   In this overview video, Ed Downs explains what was added to the original platform to create OmniFunds 2, how legacy users can engage it and also about the new Premier Level that was made possible by the work of our Associates.

Click Here to watch the video.

Announcing OmniFunds 2

It is with great pleasure that I am announcing the release of OmniFunds 2 - a new platform based on the original OmniFunds, but greatly enhanced based on what we have learned since OmniFunds 1 was released in 2017.

OmniFunds 2 is based on several new concepts:

Trading Multiple Portfolios.   The original site only allowed 2 portfolios, and allocation between them was fixed.  OmniFunds 2 spreads allocation across as many Portfolios as the OmniFund designer wants to include in the OmniFund

Avoiding Earnings Risk:   Every Portfolio can be set to have an Earnings Test, such that any symbol that is within X days of having an Earnings Report published will be avoided by OmniFunds.  Likewise, the software can wait for Y days after an Earnings Report to allow the stock to be traded.

Allocation Control:  OmniFunds 2 has a setting at the OmniFund Level that allows a maximum percentage per symbol to be specified.  This avoids cases where the user does not want to be allocated more than (say) 50% in any single position.  There is a counter argument that investing 100% in the best stock in the market is a viable approach, and evidence would suggest this is true.  But now, the OmniFunds Pro user can control this aspect of allocation to suite their requirements.

The Robo Report – Q1 2024

Condor Capital Wealth Management recently released their Robo Report for Q1 of 2024.  As with all other years we have investigated, the Robo Advisors continue to perform very poorly, compared to the overall stock market.  

In the middle of the Report is a table showing the main Robo Advisor performance for the past 5 years, 3 years, 1 year and Year to Date (Q1).  

Focusing on the SOLID GREEN line, we can see the average annual gain over the past 5 years was only about 6.5%.   

By contrast, the market was up an average of about 14% per year over the past 5 years, which is more than DOUBLE the Robo Returns. 

Here's an image of the Dow Jones Industrial ETF, DIA.

Year after year, the evidence continues to suggest you would be better off buying ANY market index ETF, such as SPY, QQQ, or DIA compared to investing in pretty much any Robo Advisor.  

Once again, we see that Robo Advisors consistently under-perform the major market indices.   As we say here at IFM,  "Returns Matter."  Because they do.

Download The Robo Report:

Visit Condor Capital Wealth Management for archived Robo Reports going back to 2017.  You can also click the link near the top of the page to download the latest edition. 

The Future of the Robo Advisors: ‘A Variety of Investing Styles

Download article from RoboAdvisorsPro.com

In Top 11 Trends of the Robo Advisor Industry (September 2016), industry experts discuss the current trends that are developing in the Robo Advisor space. Some are obvious – the rising impact of regulations in the wake of the Department of Labor’s new fiduciary rules and the move to mobile devices for the delivery of account information and user interaction. And, some are not so obvious, yet, just as impactful. Dr. Kenneth Gustin of Chartis Research Ltd. Says,

… in the future, you’ll find a variety of investing styles available from the Robo Advisor, not just a passive, index-fund investment approach. Greater sophistication in the technology for trade analysis, plus back-testing of strategies, will drive these styles forward.”

We agree with Dr. Gustin. Today, nearly all Robo Advisors engage in a passive index-fund approach for their clients. In our experience, this rather simple method has often underperformed the market and led to significant drawdowns in client accounts.

OmniFunds is focused on Probability-Based Investing through the analysis of chart data and inter-market relationships. This focus has already created fund management approaches that significantly out-perform the portfolios offered by most Robo Advisors.

We believe that returns matter to clients a lot more than most Robo Advisors seem to be willing to admit. As users scrutinize their returns, Robo Advisors will begin attempting to gain an edge. It is our belief that the only way to consistently out-perform the market is to carefully select securities that have a high probability of upward movement in the next timeframe (month, quarter, etc.).

Nirvana Systems, Inc., the research and development organization that is building the OmniFunds technology, is currently testing Artificial Intelligence Probability metrics designed to maximize gains and minimize “pullbacks” also commonly known as “draw downs” even more than current methods. These new funds are expected to be available early in Q1 of 2017.